To survive climate change, forest trees will have to shift seed production poleward. However, warming will not stimulate tree fecundity in the north if it is limited by other habitat variables.
We evaluated the responses of tree fecundity to climate change for 292 tree species in North America and Europe, using response velocity, defined as (climate sensitivity) × (climate-change rate). The sensitivities to climate were estimated for each species and combined with rates of climate change to quantify how temperature, moisture deficits, and late freeze are influencing biogeographic shifts in tree reproduction.
The results show that moisture deficit and late freeze, not annual temperature, drive changing seed production. Unlike annual temperature, which is increasing generally, change in these climate variables is not driving poleward shifts in seed production.
These findings do not challenge the expectation that forests might eventually shift poleward. Rather, they show why current efforts offer divergent interpretations. The changes happening now are not consistent with annual temperature trends. As warming continues, fecundity changes can best be anticipated from temperature interactions with precipitation and extremes that impact flowering and fruiting in winter and spring.

iNaturalist data are growing rapidly, and researchers are increasingly interested in their utility for ecology and conservation. Yet because iNaturalist data are collected opportunistically, they have taxonomic and geographic unevenness that researchers should be aware of. Here, we describe the taxonomic, geographic, and temporal patterns in the global iNaturalist mammal data; evaluate whether residents or visitors contribute more observations; and illustrate the potential utility and pitfalls for IUCN Endangered or Data-Deficient mammals. As of early 2025, there were 5.29 million observations of mammals on iNaturalist, with >10 K observations from most orders. Larger species were more likely to be observed across the globe, but effects from other species traits on observations varied across countries. Observations of smaller species also tended to be identified by the community less frequently, highlighting a need for additional engagement by taxonomic experts. Geographically, over 20% of the data are from within North America, but observation rates are growing in all countries. Some of this growth is likely driven by tourism, as we estimated that visitors contribute the majority of observations for 63% of countries. iNaturalist data now vastly outnumber museum records for Data-Deficient species and could improve knowledge about species distributions. We pass along several lessons we learned from working with this dataset, including best practices for quality control related to the taxonomic and positional uncertainty of observations. We also highlight 3 key ways in which the utility of iNaturalist can continue to grow for mammals: (i) more observations, particularly for small species and in places with few observations; (ii) more identifications of existing observations by local and non-local experts; and (iii) development of robust methods to estimate (relative) abundance, which could be used for trend analyses. Ultimately, we hope to inspire additional engagement with iNaturalist, both on the platform and within the research community.

In 2023, more than half of olive harvests (Olea europaea) across Spain, Greece, and Türkiye were lost to drought. The same year late freeze destroyed 90% of the peach crop (Prunus persica) on the Georgia Piedmont and the apple crop (Malus domestica) in central New York, Vermont, and southern Quebec. Climate extremes now rank with the costliest threats to agriculture, but their role in forest recovery from diebacks that are happening globally is unknown for lack of tree fecundity estimates in forests. Tolerance of climate extremes could depend on past exposure but constrained by phylogenetic conservatism. We report a continental scale analysis of climate extremes and forest fecundity across North America and Europe showing that responses to late freeze and drought are happening now. Species differences are not explained by the traits typically included in ecological studies and they are weakly associated with phylogeny. Late freeze, that is, freezing temperatures that follow the onset of flower development in spring, is shown to be “normal” in North America, but not Europe, potentially explaining failed seed production due to delayed onset and the resultant shorter growing period by North American transplants dating back at least to the 18th century. Drought has thus far had the greatest impacts in dry forested regions, but here too, species differences are not explained by traditional trait values. If responses have been buffered from drought and late freeze by past exposure, acclimation and local adaptation prove inadequate as extremes intensify.

Aims. Microbiome composition is increasingly considered in species reintroduction efforts and may influence survival and reproductive success. Many turtle species are threatened by anthropogenic pressures and are frequently raised in captivity for reintroduction efforts, yet little is known about turtle microbiome composition in either wild or captive settings. Here, we investigated trends in microbiome composition of captive and wild IUCN-endangered Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii). Methods and results. We amplified and sequenced the V4 region of the 16S rDNA locus from plastron, cloaca, and water samples of wild E. blandingii adults and two populations of captive E. blandingii juveniles being raised for headstarting. Plastron, cloaca, and water-associated microbiomes differed strongly from each other and were highly variable among captive sites and between captive and wild sites. Across plastron, cloaca, and water-associated microbial communities, microbial diversity changed over time, but not in a predictable direction between captive sites. Plastron beta diversity correlated with growth rate in captive samples, indicating that external microbiomes may correlate with individual fitness. Conclusions. Our results indicate that external and internal microbiomes vary between captive and wild turtles and may reflect differences in fitness of captive-raised individuals.

Global declines in insect populations have important implications for biodiversity and food security. To offset these declines, habitat restoration and enhancement in agricultural landscapes could mutually safeguard insect populations and their pollination services for crop production. The expansion of utility-scale solar energy development in agricultural landscapes presents an opportunity for the dual use of the land for energy production and biodiversity conservation through the establishment of grasses and forbs planted among and between the photovoltaic solar arrays (‘solar-pollinator habitat’). We conducted a longitudinal field study across 5 years (2018–2022) to understand how insect communities responded to newly established habitat on solar energy facilities in agricultural landscapes by evaluating (1) temporal changes in flowering plant abundance and diversity; (2) temporal changes in insect abundance and diversity; and (3) the pollination services of solar-pollinator habitat by comparing pollinator visitation to agricultural fields near solar-pollinator habitat with other agricultural field locations. We found increases over time for all habitat and biodiversity metrics: floral rank, flowering plant species richness, insect group diversity, native bee abundance, and total insect abundance, with the most noticeable temporal increases in native bee abundance. We also found positive effects of proximity to solar-pollinator habitat on bee visitation to nearby soybean (Glycine max) fields. Bee visitation to soybean flowers adjacent to solar-pollinator habitat were comparable to bee visitation to soybeans adjacent to grassland areas enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program, and greater than bee visitation to soybean field interior and roadside soybean flowers. Our observations highlight the relatively rapid (<4 year) insect community responses to grassland restoration activities and provide support for solar-pollinator habitat as a feasible conservation practice to safeguard biodiversity and increase food security in agricultural landscapes.